Weekly Rates Intelligence Briefing

Week Commencing 2 February 2026 | BOE Held at 4.75% | SONIA ~3.73%

Executive Summary for Brokers

Rate Increases
93%
Rate Decreases
7%
Lenders Active This Week
35
⚠️ Material upward repricing across the panel this week. The 93:7 increase-to-decrease ratio is the most aggressive we've seen in several months. Pipeline cases with DIP/AIPs should be progressed to full application urgently. New enquiries need rate protection within 48-72 hours.

SONIA & Funding Cost Analysis

Key Observation: SONIA remained exceptionally stable (range: 3.7260%-3.7279%, total movement +1.9bps) throughout the week, yet lenders repriced aggressively upward. This disconnect suggests:

Date SONIA Rate (%) Daily Δ (bps) Cumulative Δ (bps)
Mon 02 Feb 3.7260% - 0
Tue 03 Feb 3.7260% 0 0
Wed 04 Feb 3.7265% +0.5 +0.5
Thu 05 Feb 3.7278% +1.3 +1.8
Fri 06 Feb 3.7279% +0.1 +1.9
Market Intelligence:

Featured Lenders

Santander - Systematic Repricing (16 Products)

Broker Impact: All Santander repricing increased by +4bps across 2yr and 5yr fixes. Pipeline cases submitted before Monday retained original pricing if AIP issued.
Product LTV Fee Cashback Old Rate New Rate Δ (bps)
2yr Fix 75% £999 £0 3.65% 3.69% +4
5yr Fix 75% £999 £0 3.80% 3.84% +4
2yr Fix 80% £999 £0 3.79% 3.83% +4
5yr Fix 80% £999 £0 3.94% 3.98% +4
2yr Fix 85% £999 £0 3.88% 3.92% +4
5yr Fix 85% £999 £0 4.03% 4.07% +4
2yr Fix 90% £999 £0 4.07% 4.11% +4
5yr Fix 90% £999 £0 4.19% 4.23% +4

Sample of 8 products shown. Additional £0 fee variants and cashback products saw identical +4bps movement.

Cumberland BS - Mixed Directional Movement (9 Products)

Broker Impact: Cumberland predominantly increased +7bps with one strategic decrease at 85% LTV (-7bps), likely to compete with mainstream lenders at this tier.
Product LTV Fee Old Rate New Rate Δ (bps)
2yr Fix 60% £999 3.87% 3.94% +7
5yr Fix 60% £999 3.99% 4.06% +7
2yr Fix 75% £999 4.04% 4.11% +7
5yr Fix 75% £999 4.16% 4.23% +7
2yr Fix 85% £999 4.34% 4.27% -7
5yr Fix 85% £999 4.46% 4.53% +7

Panel Positioning & Sourcing Recommendations

Best Execution Analysis - 75% LTV Fixed Rate Products

Lender 2yr Fix Range 2yr Avg 5yr Fix Range 5yr Avg Sourcing Priority
Halifax 3.60% - 4.45% 3.89% 3.83% - 4.38% 4.02% TIER 1
Santander 3.65% - 4.11% 3.88% 3.80% - 4.10% 3.95% TIER 1
HSBC 3.73% - 4.13% 3.95% 3.82% - 4.23% 3.99% TIER 1
Barclays 3.70% - 4.10% 3.87% 3.82% - 4.18% 4.02% TIER 1
Accord 4.00% - 4.54% 4.25% 4.09% - 4.54% 4.31% SPECIALIST
Panel Management Strategy:

Lender Repricing Cycles - Tactical Intelligence

Observed Update Patterns (Valid for Next 4-6 Weeks):

Monday 8:00-9:00 AM

Halifax
Santander (Phase 1)

492 Halifax products updated Monday 2nd Feb | 146 Santander products updated Monday 2nd Feb

Action: Check rates Monday morning for both lenders. Submit AIPs before 9am if existing quotes look vulnerable to repricing.

Tuesday 8:00-9:00 AM

Santander (Phase 2)
Nationwide

147 Santander products updated Tuesday 3rd Feb (second wave)

Action: Santander operates two-phase updates. If Monday pricing holds, Tuesday is final adjustment day. Nationwide typically follows suit.

Wednesday 8:00-9:00 AM

HSBC
NatWest

299 HSBC products updated Wednesday 4th Feb | NatWest pattern observed but not heavily active this week

Action: Mid-week pricing window. HSBC tends to follow big bank moves from Mon/Tue with 1-2 day lag.

Thursday 8:00-9:30 AM

Barclays
Accord Mortgages
Skipton BS

122 Barclays products, 162 Accord products updated Thursday 5th Feb

Action: Late-week adjustments. Barclays often moves Thursday to undercut Monday movers. Accord reprices to maintain specialist premium positioning.

Friday

Minimal Activity: Lenders avoid Friday changes due to weekend application processing blackout and reputational risk of "bad news Friday" announcements. Occasionally see product withdrawals but rarely rate increases.

Rate Movement Forecast & Swap Rate Context

Short-Term View (Next 7-14 Days)

Lender Probability Expected Movement Rationale
Santander Low (20%) Hold Just repriced +4bps. Typically 10-14 day pricing cycle.
Halifax Medium (45%) +3 to +5bps Moved Monday. May follow market if swap rates continue upward trajectory.
HSBC Medium-High (60%) +4 to +6bps Moved Wednesday. Likely second adjustment within 10 days based on historical patterns.
Barclays Low (25%) Hold Thursday move was reactive. Next cycle likely 10-14 days out.
Nationwide High (70%) +5 to +8bps Did not move significantly this week. Overdue for repricing given market movement.
NatWest High (65%) +5 to +7bps Limited activity this week. Typically reprices 7-10 days behind market leaders.

Medium-Term Outlook (1-3 Months)

Swap Rate Drivers:
Tactical Recommendation: The current repricing cycle has 2-3 weeks to run. Expect another 5-10bps across the panel before stabilisation. Priority should be protecting existing AIPs and progressing pipeline cases to offer stage to lock in current pricing.

Client Management Framework

🔴 URGENT ACTION REQUIRED

Scenario: Existing AIP/DIP issued before Monday 2nd February

🟡 HIGH PRIORITY MONITORING

Scenario: Active enquiries, no application submitted yet

🟢 STANDARD PIPELINE MANAGEMENT

Scenario: Offer stage or completion within 4-6 weeks

🔵 RETENTION & REMORTGAGE BOOK

Scenario: Existing clients with 3-6 months remaining on fixed term

Compliance & Documentation Notes

Rate Protection Documentation:
Suitability Considerations:

Execution Summary & Next Steps

Repricing Cycle Status
Active
2-3 weeks remaining
Expected Further Movement
+5-10bps
Across panel average
Best Execution
Halifax
2yr 75% LTV @ 3.60%
Next Major Moves
Mon-Wed
Week of 9th Feb

Broker Action Plan - Week of 9th February

  1. Monday Morning (Before 10am): Review all AIPs issued prior to 2nd Feb. Contact clients with property identified to progress applications urgently.
  2. Monday-Tuesday: Submit new applications for active enquiries. Prioritise Halifax/Santander for best execution. Monitor for morning rate changes 8-9am both days.
  3. Wednesday: HSBC repricing likely. Review pipeline for any HSBC-suitable cases and submit before potential rate change.
  4. Thursday: Barclays/Accord repricing possible. Final window for rate protection before potential weekend rate review announcements.
  5. Friday: Pipeline review and client communications for the following week. Identify at-risk cases and prepare client outreach strategy.
Critical Window: The next 5-7 business days represent the optimal rate protection window before the next repricing wave. Firms should prioritise application velocity over perfect documentation - secure rates first, tidy paperwork second.

Technical Appendix

Methodology Notes

Swap Rate Context (Week Average)

Tenor Swap Rate (Approx) Typical Mortgage Pricing Observed Best Mortgage Spread (bps)
2-Year ~3.90% Swap +80-120bps 3.60% (Halifax) -30bps
5-Year ~3.80% Swap +80-120bps 3.80% (Santander) ±0bps

Note: Halifax 2yr pricing below typical swap spread suggests aggressive volume capture strategy or relationship banking cross-sell objectives. Santander 5yr at swap rate indicates minimal margin - likely loss leader for remortgage market share.

Questions or Panel Support?

This briefing is designed to support broker decision-making and client management during active market conditions.

Analysis Period: 2-6 February 2026 | Data: Panel Rate Feeds, BOE SONIA, Swap Rate Estimates

Report Generated: 13 February 2026